Epic Game of "Lodden Thinks"

Topics: Epic Poker League, September Main Event, Antonio Esfandiari, Greg Mueller, Jaime Kaplan, Justin Grant Young [+]

EDITOR'S NOTE: On Day 1 of the Epic’s second Main Event, several players at Table 10 engaged in a game of "Lodden Thinks," a gambling game developed by Phil Laak and Antonio Esfandiari. They invented the game at a WSOP Europe TV table, coming up with questions requiring numerical answers and bidding over/under on what answer European pro Johnny Lodden would give. The actual answers to the questions could be unknowable (like the number of poker players in North Korea) and are otherwise irrelevant (like the number of pairs of pants owned by David Williams). The competitors bid on what Lodden (or the person at the table designated as Lodden) thinks.

Along with the broadcast premiere of the first of four hours of Main Event 2, Epic has produced a Main Event Companion of new material and highlights from the original live coverage to add to the viewing experience.

Several dealers have already proclaimed Table #10 to be the "fun table," primarily because Antonio Esfandiari is leading a game of "Lodden Thinks."

For those of you unfamiliar with the rules of the game, here's a quick rundown.

RULES FOR LODDEN THINKS

A question is posed which has a numerical answer, but which the person guessing couldn't possibly know -- usually something weird like how many pairs of socks Gavin Smith owns. The game tends to be more fun when the questions are very interesting, and involve other players at the table.

One person is picked as the Guesser, who ponders the question and writes down their best guess to lock in the answer. It's important to note that the actual correct answer -- such as how many pairs of socks Gavin Smith owns -- is irrelevant. The bet is all about the answer that the Guesser comes up with.

Once the Guesser has locked in his answer, 2-3 other players begin bidding, auction-style, on a betting line. They start low, and bid higher and higher until somebody buys the line by taking the under. During the course of this game, Esfandiari pointed out that any time you min-raise (increasing the bid by 1), it's called a "Phil Laak."

Once the betting line is set and the bets are made, the Guesser reveals his written-down answer, and the bets are settled.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM TABLE #10

The Guesser at Table #10 is Pro/Am qualifier Jaime Kaplan, a young online player. (Or should we say former online player, since Kaplan lives in the United States.) The other players at the table don't know much about Kaplan, which introduces more uncertainty and makes the game more interesting. 

The bettors were Antonio Esfandiari, Justin Young, and Greg "FBT" Mueller. Here are some of the questions posed here on Day 1 of the Epic Poker Main Event:

1.  How many phone numbers for women does Greg Mueller Have In his cellphone? 

Esfandiari came up with the question, and stipulated that the number wouldn't include family members -- only women that had the potential to be sexual partners. Kaplan thought for a bit and wrote down his guess, and then the bidding started at 18 between Young, Mueller, and Esfandiari.

It doesn't matter that Mueller may know the actual number, because the actual number doesn't matter. They're betting on the number that Kaplan guessed.

The bidding started at 18, and when it got to 89, somebody bought it and took the under. With the bets in place, it was time for Kaplan to reveal his guess -- 17.

Everyone at the table found this guess to be hilarious, and Mueller seemed almost offended. Kaplan said he forgot to take into account that a traveling poker player would probably have more numbers than someone who lived in one place. Mueller laughed and said, "What about a former professional hockey player?"

When asked how many numbers for women he actually had in his phone, Mueller said, "I have no idea, but I have two phones. This is just my U.S. phone."

2.  Between the nine people at the table (eight male players and one female dealer), how many total sexual partners have they had?

Young came up with this question, and Kaplan was once again the Guesser. Young, Mueller, and Esfandiari bid the number up to 300 before somebody bought the line and took the under. 

Kaplan, who may have been overcompensating because of his extremely low guess on the first question, had guessed 712. That's an average of nearly 80 sexual partners for each person at the table.

Thankfully, nobody forced an actual count of everyone's sexual partners.

3.  How much money would it take for Justin Young and Greg Mueller to stay within 100 yards of each other for an entire year?

This question was posed by Esfandiari, and Kaplan was still the Guesser. Staying within 100 yards of each other would mean that the two players could still enjoy some measure of privacy, but they would have to travel together, go to restaurants together, go on dates together, and so on.

The bidding went pretty fast, and stopped abruptly at $4 million when Mueller bought the under. That would've been $2 million each for Mueller and Young to spend a year together.

Kaplan's guess was $710,000. Mueller just laughed and said, "We have a Lodden fish!" 

Kaplan defended his answer by saying that the two players seemed to get along pretty well, and they both seemed like nice, fun guys. Kaplan felt that $1,000 a day for each of them would be enough. Mueller and Young clearly disagreed.

4.  If Antonio Esfandiari, Greg Mueller, and Justin Young had one full year to plan a bank heist, what would be the percentage chance that they would be able to get at least one item out of the bank vault?

If nothing else, this would put an interesting spin on the classic heist formula for Hollywood. 

The bidding got to 14% before somebody called. Kaplan's guess was 21%, and Mueller won the bet with the over. Since they were in the same ballpark, it seemed that the bettors were getting a better read on Kaplan's guesses.

5.  How much money would Antonio Esfandiari have to be paid to skip Burning Man next year?

Context is important here, because Burning Man just ended yesterday (Labor Day), and Esfandiari has spent much of the day talking about what a great, life-changing experience it was, saying he never wanted to miss another one. 

Shortly before this bet came up, Esfandiari wrote this on Twitter: "Here I am playing in the epic poker tournament and all I can think about is how I have to wait a whole year til the next burning man."

Kaplan set his guess, and the bidding got up to $25,000 before somebody called to take the under. Kaplan's guess was $111,000.

Once again, everyone started laughing at the guess, but Kaplan stood strong. Kaplan said that Esfandiari called it the best experience of his life and said he'd never miss another one. $25,000 wasn't life-changing for Esfandiari, but Burning Man was.

6.  If a random number generator selected random coordinates for someplace on Earth, and Antonio Esfandiari was dropped there with nothing but what he has on his person, what is the percentage chance that he would be able to make it back to Las Vegas alive?

It was stipulated that the coordinates had to be on land -- no oceans, lakes, or rivers.

As Andy Frankenberger pointed out, Esfandiari could wind up in a lion's den, for example, where he would (literally) be drawing dead. Others pointed out he could land in Antarctica, or the middle of a desert, and be equally screwed.

On the flip side, if he ended up in a civilized area, it'd be a near certainty that he'd make it back. So some random coordinates would mean certain death, and others would mean certain survival. But taking everything into account, what are the chances that Esfandiari would make it?

The bidding only lasted for three numbers. Esfandiari started at 1%, Justin Young raised to 5%, and Greg Mueller made it 30%. Esfandiari called, taking the under, and Young sided with Mueller on the over.

Jaime Kaplan guessed that Esfandiari had a 38% chance of surviving and getting back to Vegas. 

Esfandiari began arguing with Kaplan that the number should be lower, and Mueller reminded him that it doesn't matter. The table then spent some time discussing what percentage of the land on earth is near civilization, and Kaplan admitted that he had no idea.

Frankenberger posed a follow-up question, but they didn't bet on it. How many people in this room (players, dealers, staff, and media) would agree to be subjected to this experiment -- to be dropped on a random piece of land somewhere on Earth -- for $1 million?

Most agreed that the amount of money was too small for such a high risk of death. But it may have led to the next question.

7.  You have to choose a card from a specially prepared deck with one red card and multiple black cards. If you pick a red card, you are killed instantly. But if you pick a black card, you are given $1 billion. What is the minimum number of black cards you would need in the deck to accept this proposition?

Since some people around the world define a billion differently than the United States, the number they are referring to is $1,000,000,000.

Frankenberger stated the obvious -- "A billion. That's kind of life-changing money."

As the Guesser, Kaplan was asked to pick the number that he himself would choose for a 1-in-X chance of death to win $1 billion.

The bidding started at six, and slowly escalated until Esfandiari bought the under at 37. Kaplan's number was 41.

This is just a sampling of the "Lodden Thinks" questions that they ran through during the first half of the day. Unfortunately, Antonio Esfandiari was eliminated about 25 minutes before the dinner break, and the entire table broke a few minutes later.